In 2025, the consumer packaged goods (CPG) sector finds itself in a sticky situation. Companies across the category are facing mounting pressures on both the front and back ends of their operations — from rising costs and shifting trade policy to evolving consumer expectations and eroding brand loyalty.
Exceed diverse consumer expectations to grow sustainably and profitably in an uncertain world
Few industries feel this dual pressure more than American candy makers, particularly during this year’s Halloween season — their single most important sales moment of the year.
Unfortunately, this year the spookiest season proved to be a particularly tricky one. According to FinanceBuzz, candy prices rose by 17% from 2024 to 2025. Price increases pose a threat to legacy brands, as 26% of American consumers say they can no longer afford brand loyalty, according to the 2025 SAP Emarsys Customer Loyalty Index.
For confectionery manufacturers that have long relied on emotional connection and nostalgia to sustain sales, this Halloween season created pressures on the front- and back-end, leading to what’s effectively called the “CPG squeeze.”
Yet, there’s still room for optimism. The bottom line is that consumer demand hasn’t disappeared; it’s simply evolving. While this Halloween season presented a scare, candy makers can prepare for upcoming moments like the holiday season and Valentine’s Day by integrating financial, commercial, and supply chain planning as well as by connecting sourcing, production, logistics, marketing, and retail.
Supplier side reality
Behind the fun-size bars and Halloween packaging, U.S. candy makers grappled with operational headwinds this year. Volatile trade policy made ingredient and packaging costs unpredictable, while global disruptions reverberated through supply chains.
In anticipation, manufacturers stockpiled inventory and restructured supplier networks, tying up working capital and putting additional stress on already thin margins. The loss of supplier stability has also become a defining feature of today’s CPG landscape: 70% of companies report switching suppliers primarily due to cost considerations, and fewer than one in four (22%) have maintained supplier relationships longer than five years, according to data from SAP Emarsys.
For candy makers dependent on commodities like sugar, cocoa, and dairy, these disruptions hit particularly hard. Add that to the growing costs of packaging, transportation, and marketing, and even iconic brands found themselves squeezed from all sides.
Cautious consumers and the erosion of loyalty
On the consumer front, the loyalty that once defined relationships with classic candy brands began to show signs of strain. That’s bad news for staple brands that have long relied on customers who instinctively reach for the same branded candy every Halloween.
At the same time, social media has amplified product discovery. Trends can shift overnight, and a viral post about a new flavor or an unexpected candy collaboration can sway younger buyers instantly. For established brands, loyalty must now be earned continuously.
Halloween was one example of this shift, but we’re going to see families purchase fewer products or mix traditional favorites with lower-priced alternatives in the future as Americans continue to tighten their budgets. Meanwhile, retailers will face uncertain demand and fluctuating supplier costs, leading to a greater risk of stockouts. These trends highlight why CPG companies need smarter, more connected planning to stay ahead of shifting consumer behavior.
Stopping the squeeze with end-to-end connected planning
The effect of the CPG squeeze during this Halloween season offers candy makers valuable lessons before future moments of peak demand. Companies that continue to operate with fragmented data risk missing critical insights, whether it’s an emerging cost spike, a change in trade policy or a social trend that could make or break sales.
That’s why CPG companies must embrace end-to-end business planning, a holistic approach that aims to enable agility, transparency and collaboration across every stage of the value chain, through the following methods:
1. Integrated supply and demand planning
Using AI-driven analytics and real-time data, companies can more accurately balance supply and demand, ensuring they produce the right amount of product at the right time. For candy makers, that means having adjusted holiday production runs in response to early season buying trends or ingredient cost shifts.
This model helps connect supplier, logistics, and retail data streams, allowing teams to react instantly to cost spikes or sales slowdowns — helping CPGs improve forecast accuracy for tomorrow’s disruptions today.
2. Collaborative commercial and promotions planning
Integrating sales, marketing and trade promotion data with supply and finance planning helps maximize promotional ROI. Deloitte reports that 68% of CPG companies are simplifying or otherwise improving their organizational structure to improve coordination between teams, leading to fewer out-of-stocks and stronger seasonal performance.
To make these efforts more effective, companies must turn to revenue growth management as a strategic link between planning and execution. By connecting ROI, volume, and profit and loss data, SAP Revenue Growth Management ensures promotions are timed and tailored to shopper needs. This approach supports customer retention, attracts new buyers, and helps maintain healthy margins.
The coordination of holiday campaigns, shelf placements, and promotional pricing with a unified view of inventory and demand is crucial. Rather than running separate marketing and logistics calendars, teams must collaborate around a single version of truth, ensuring the product featured in a viral ad is available on shelves.
3. Financial planning and scenario modeling
End-to-end planning also allows companies to simulate “what-if” scenarios by modeling policy changes, supply shortages, or demand surges to test resilience. For example, a candy maker facing a 10% increase in imported cocoa costs can immediately assess how to reallocate budgets through promotional adjustments, sourcing alternatives, or margin management.
With real-time connectivity across teams, financial forecasts can automatically update as assumptions shift, empowering decision-makers to pivot fast.
Turning pressure into opportunity
The “CPG squeeze” wasn’t just a momentary market condition; it’s a structural shift that will reshape how candy makers and other CPG brands operate for years to come.
Halloween this year delivered more tricks than treats for American candy makers. Rising costs, shifting loyalties and supply challenges exposed the fragility of traditional planning models. To weather the holidays ahead, all CPGs must embrace integrated planning models that connect every part of the value chain.
With greater visibility and agility to anticipate change and respond to consumer demand, CPG brands can make every holiday a little sweeter.
Jon Dano is an industry executive advisor for Consumer Products at SAP.
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